Claves de la recuperación en España

En un entorno en el que los indicadores económicos indican que España parece haber tocado fondo y donde las entradas de capital extranjero van en ascenso, las posibilidades para que se produzca crecimiento pasan por sentar unas bases sólidas (no basadas en burbujas cortoplacistas) que permita al país volver a ser competitivo. Analicemos los factores que son claves para generar el tan ansiado crecimiento:

1. Continuar con el incremento en las exportaciones producido en los últimos meses por parte de nuestras empresas. La mejora en el déficit de cuenta corriente viene produciéndose por un aunmento en las exportaciones y no por la caída de las importaciones.



Las compañías españolas han superado la crisis adquiriendo una mayor cuota de mercado. Aspectos relevantes en este duro proceso:

  •  Incremento de la productividad laboral de más del 10% desde 2008, propiciada también por la caída del sector de la construcción.
  • El coste laboral unitario se ha reducido un 8%, siendo un factor que afecta positivamente a nuestra competitividad, mientras que en la mayoría de países competidores ha aumentado de forma notoria.
  • Aunque divisas como la libra hayan caído más que el euro, España ha exportado más que Reino Unido, lo que denota la importancia de este cambio.

2. Inversión privada. La contracción de los créditos bancarios es tal que dificilmente puede ir a más, pero lo cierto es que el panorama no parece que vaya a mejorar en el corto plazo debido a la gran cantidad de deuda pública que aun poseen estas entidades.


Fuente: Ministerio de Economía

Por el contrario, las inversiones privadas procedentes del extranjero han progresado considerablemente y actualmente son la principal vía de financiación que necesitan las empresas españolas. Un claro ejemplo es que hace tan sólo un par de días todos los medios se hacían eco de la adquisición del 6% de FCC por parte de Bill Gates.

3. Consumo. El indicador que mejor mide la economía de un país es el consumo. En un contexto en el que la confianza del consumidor se está recuperando, el desempleo se ha estabilizado y la evolución del crédito es favorable habrá que estar muy atentos al comportamiento de este indicador en los próximos meses.

Todas estas circunstancias, acompañadas de un descenso de los impuestos tendrían un efecto muy positivo sobre la economía española, ya que incrementaría la renta disponible de las familias y facilitaría el incremento del consumo y la creación de pequeñas y medianas empresas. Aunque claro, medidas como estas parecen quedar algo más lejos.

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