¿Se deben comprar acciones en recesión?

Esta pregunta tiene una fácil respuesta. La respuesta sin duda es sí y argumentaré el por qué de esta rotunda afirmación. Durante las recesiones el único objetivo de los gobierno será conseguir cambiar esta situación y para conseguirlo harán lo siguiente:

Bajar tipos de interés

Esto facilitará la adquisición de dinero a la banca por lo que tendrá más capital disponible para invertir y esto hará que sea más probable que las bolsas suban. Tipos-01

Tipos de interés BCE. Fuente: elaboración propia.

Aumentar la base monetaria

Esto quiere decir que se pondrán a imprimir billetes sin parar (lo que puede llegar a ser contraproducente para las bolsas si se genera demasiada inflación). Al haber más dinero en circulación se destinará una cantidad mayor a la compra de valores y por tanto subirá el precio de las acciones. Como decía A.Kostolany “El dinero es el oxígeno de las bolsas”.

El ejemplo actual más claro de esta situación es EEUU donde los planes de estímulo monetario (QE y Twist) están llevando a la los índices bursátiles a superar incluso máximos históricos a pesar de la situación económica global. En el siguiente gráfico del índice S&P500 de EEUU se observa cómo mientras duran los planes de estímulo la bolsa sube y cuando son retirados se producen caídas.


QE en Estados UnidosQE

Evolución del índice S&P 500 unido a los planes de estímulo monetario QE y Twist. Fuente: elaboración propia.

Hemos comprobado así que una situación de recesión no tiene por qué ir acompañada de caídas en los precios de las acciones, ya que debido a las políticas de expansión monetaria de los bancos centrales y a las bajadas de tipos de interés se favorecerá el incremento de los precios y puede ser interesante invertir en acciones.

Por otra parte debemos de tener en cuenta una cosa: hay productos financieros que nos pueden dar una mayor flexibilidad a la hora de operar (derivados financieros, que permiten operar tanto al alza como a la baja), pero esto requiere un conocimiento más profundo del mercado y de los riesgos que entrañan.

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